Prepared by Sofia Oliynyk and Maryana Zaviyska
Photo: Graves of defenders of Ukraine in the cemetery in Dnipro/Svitlana Chernukhina
Foreign policy.
The European Commission and Ministry of Infrastructure of Ukraine have agreed on the final text of the EU-Ukraine Special Agreement on the Liberalization of Road Transport. The Agreement envisaged performance of bilateral and transit traffic by Ukrainian carriers without permits. This will significantly improve and speed up logistics between Ukraine and the EU. The decision is particularly critical, considering the Ukrainian port blockade is completely dependent on stable logistics on the western borders.
Today in Brussels, Ukraine Defense Contact Group will meet to identify and examine the next steps needed to help Ukraine defend itself from Russian aggression. Meanwhile, Deputy Defense Minister Anna Malyar says Ukraine received so far only 10% of the requested weapons. “No matter how hard Ukraine tries, we won’t win the war without the help of the West. We received only 10 percent of what Ukraine said we need,” Maliar said on the air of the telethon.
Scenarios for Ukraine.
Western officials consider three potential development scenarios in the Russian war in Ukraine, reports CNN. Russia could continue to make incremental gains in two key Donetsk and Luhansk regions, therefore taking gradual control over the regions. The battle lines could harden into a stalemate that drags on for months or years, leading to tremendous casualties on both sides and a slow-rolling crisis that will continue to be a drain on the global economy. The least likely scenario is that Russia could redefine its war aims, announce that it has achieved victory, and attempt to engineer a close to the fighting. For now, that scenario appears to be no more than wishful thinking, sources say.
Russian authorities have their own plans for Ukraine, which includes its division into three administrative contingencies. Russian military correspondent Sasha Kots posted an image of a map that was displayed at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum, depicting a proposed scheme for the “administrative-territorial” division of Ukraine following the war on a three-to-five-year transition scale, says Institute of the War Studies. The proposed scheme would divide Ukrainian regions into Russian “territorial districts” and suggests the manner in which Russian authorities hope to incorporate Ukrainian territory directly into Russia eventually. Therefore in the long-term perspective, this rather indicates that Russia does not intend to stop where it is at the moment and will aim for full “integration” of Ukraine.
Cities under attack.
In the city of Apostolovo, Dnipropetrovsk region, four people died as a result of enemy shelling from BM-27 “Hurricanes”. In the Novomoskovsk district, there were two missile strikes severely damaging infrastructure and country houses. In the Donetsk region, hostilities and shelling of settlements are constant with all types of weapons being engaged – small arms, tanks, artillery, mortars, MLRS “Hail”, MLRS “Tornado”. 42 objects of infrastructure were damaged, including 33 private houses, one high-rise building, a railway track, the UTOS enterprise, a motor depot and others. In the Luhansk region, a Russian offensive aimed at Sievierodentsk and Lysychansk continues. Russian forces are targeting all infrastructure objects, especially plants. Situation in the Kherson region remains critical due to constant shelling and limited access to the resources. Air raid defense systems destroyed missiles flying in the direction of Lviv and Ternopil regions, some civilians were damaged by the explosion wave and remnants of the destroyed missiles. In the Lviv region, 6 people were injured, including a child.
Human rights.
In Zaporizhzhia region, another round of exchange of bodies took place. Ukraine has returned the bodies of 64 Azovstal defenders for their identification and burial.
Economic security.
Ukraine’s budget revenue covers less than half of expenditures following Russia’s invasion, reports Reuters referring to Minister of Finance Danylo Hetmantsev. Considering the given conditions, Kyiv will have to cut budget spending sharply if more external financial assistance does not arrive, the head of parliament’s financial committee said. Previously, the Ministry of Finance was reporting that Ukraine needed $5 billion monthly to meet the spending needs. The Minister says the Government had collected 101 billion hryvnias ($3.42 billion) in taxes in May, but had to spend 250 billion hryvnias financing the army and supporting people who had been forced to leave their homes or whose homes had been destroyed.
Speaking of sanctions, Ukraine’s Deputy Economy Minister Taras Kachka says Western sanctions are not damaging Russia’s economy as much as expected – “Russia seems to be more resilient to sanctions than we estimated at the beginning”.
Food security.
Russia’s war in Ukraine will have a long-term impact on agriculture in Ukraine. Ongoing invasion will create a global wheat shortage for at least three seasons by keeping much of the Ukrainian crop from markets, pushing prices to record levels, says Agriculture Minister Mykola Solskyi in Reuters interview. Meanwhile, the EU countries will consider providing temporary silos to store new grain crops. Also, the US President Joe Biden said that temporary silos would be built along the border with Ukraine, including in Poland, to help export more grain and address a growing global food crisis.
Ukraine has suffered $4.3 billion in damage to farmland, machinery and livestock as a result of Russia’s invasion, reports Bloomberg quoting the Kyiv School of Economics. Since the start of the war, around 5.7 million poultry have died due to the war while $613 million worth of grain has been stolen from occupied regions of Ukraine and sent to Russia.
Energy security.
Russia made 93 billion euros in the first 100 days of the war against Ukraine by selling its fossil fuels to countries around the world. The EU imported 61% of this, worth approximately 57 billion euros, says the newly released report of Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA). Import volumes fell modestly in May, around 15% compared with the time before the invasion, as many countries and firms shunned Russian supplies. Poland and the United States made the largest dents in Russia’s revenue. Lithuania, Finland and Estonia achieved sharp percentage reductions of more than 50%.
As of June 14, around 742 settlements and a total of about 618 000 consumers in Ukraine remain without electricity due to the damage caused by hostilities. In particular, in the Donetsk region – more than 357 thousand, Luhansk – more than 128.2 thousand, Kharkiv – about 48.5 thousand consumers. 181 thousand subscribers remain without gas supply.
Reading corner.
- UK’s strong Ukraine support hides a less glorious past | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
- Russia’s fossil fuel revenue about $100 billion in 100 days of war, report says | The Washington Post
Statistics.
- Since the beginning of the Russian war in Ukraine, State Emergency Services detected and neutralised 134 895 explosive devices and 601.7 kg of explosives, including 1988 aircraft bombs.
- From 4 a.m. on 24 February 2022, when the Russian Federation’s armed attack against Ukraine started, to 24:00 midnight on 13 June 2022 (local time), the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) recorded 9931 civilian casualties in the country: 4432 killed and 5499 injured. The actual number is considerably higher, indicates OHCHR.
- General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine announced the total estimated losses of the Russian military as of 10 a.m., June 15, 2022: personnel – around 32 750, tanks ‒ 1440, APV ‒ 3528, artillery systems – 722, MLRS – 230, anti-aircraft warfare systems – 97, fixed-wing aircraft – 213, helicopters – 179, operational-tactical level UAV – 591, cruise missiles – 129, boats and light speed boats – 13, soft-skinned vehicles and fuel tankers – 2485, special equipment – 55.
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